Cal St. Northridge

Conference:	BW
Expected RPI:	340.0
Current RPI:	340
Expected SOS:	300
Current SOS:	300
Current Record:	4-24
Expected Record:	4-24
Current Conf Record:	3-13
Expected Conf Record:	3-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-12
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-11
Current OOC Record:	1-11
Expected OOC Record:	1-11
Expected OOC RPI:	351
Expected OOC SOS:	329

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
4-24	340.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal St. Northridge.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-13	Fresno St. (103.0)	MWC	A	89-73	L	0%
11-18	George Mason (201.0)	A10	A	78-73	L	0%
11-21	Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)	OVC	N	74-59	L	0%
11-22	Binghamton (320.0)	AE	N	65-70	L	0%
11-28	California (216.0)	P12	A	83-63	L	0%
12-3	Montana (76.0)	BSky	A	86-68	L	0%
12-6	Idaho St. (268.0)	BSky	A	74-66	L	0%
12-9	Loyola Marymount (258.0)	WCC	H	57-74	L	0%
12-17	Eastern Washington (122.0)	BSky	A	86-58	L	0%
12-19	Sacramento St. (309.0)	BSky	A	66-61	L	0%
12-23	Idaho St. (268.0)	BSky	H	55-67	L	0%
12-30	Morgan St. (327.0)	MEAC	H	79-69	W	100%
1-6	Hawaii (213.0)	BW	H	46-65	L	0%
1-10	Long Beach St. (191.0)	BW	A	80-70	L	0%
1-13	UC Irvine (119.0)	BW	H	54-71	L	0%
1-17	UC Riverside (300.0)	BW	A	57-66	W	100%
1-20	Cal Poly (305.0)	BW	H	72-54	W	100%
1-25	UC Davis (102.0)	BW	A	63-56	L	0%
1-27	Long Beach St. (191.0)	BW	H	66-70	L	0%
2-1	UC Davis (102.0)	BW	H	56-63	L	0%
2-3	UC Santa Barbara (127.0)	BW	A	75-51	L	0%
2-7	UC Irvine (119.0)	BW	A	77-56	L	0%
2-10	Hawaii (213.0)	BW	A	71-77	W	100%
2-14	UC Riverside (300.0)	BW	H	62-69	L	0%
2-17	Cal St. Fullerton (131.0)	BW	A	88-70	L	0%
2-22	Cal Poly (305.0)	BW	A	90-86	L	0%
2-24	UC Santa Barbara (127.0)	BW	H	73-82	L	0%
2-28	Cal St. Fullerton (131.0)	BW	H	76-102	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal St. Northridge's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Cal St. Northridge's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Cal St. Northridge.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Cal St. Northridge	BW	26.38	26.38	15.15	15.15	-18.39	-18.39
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	4.67	4.67	59.26	59.26	0.86	0.86
UC Irvine	BW	4.64	4.64	45.16	45.16	-0.45	-0.45
UC Santa Barbara	BW	4.59	4.59	67.86	67.86	1.64	1.64
UC Davis	BW	4.56	4.56	64.29	64.29	1.30	1.30
UC Riverside	BW	4.55	4.55	22.22	22.22	-2.53	-2.53
Cal Poly	BW	4.52	4.52	22.22	22.22	-2.51	-2.51
Long Beach St.	BW	4.51	4.51	37.93	37.93	-1.09	-1.09
Hawaii	BW	4.46	4.46	53.85	53.85	0.34	0.34
Idaho St.	BSky	3.69	3.69	38.46	38.46	-0.85	-0.85
Sacramento St.	BSky	2.21	2.21	13.79	13.79	-1.60	-1.60
Montana	BSky	2.14	2.14	76.67	76.67	1.14	1.14
California	P12	1.97	1.97	23.33	23.33	-1.05	-1.05
Eastern Washington	BSky	1.97	1.97	54.84	54.84	0.19	0.19
Fresno St.	MWC	1.93	1.93	62.07	62.07	0.47	0.47
Loyola Marymount	WCC	1.91	1.91	31.03	31.03	-0.72	-0.72
George Mason	A10	1.88	1.88	46.88	46.88	-0.12	-0.12
Morgan St.	MEAC	1.84	1.84	37.93	37.93	-0.44	-0.44
Binghamton	AE	1.84	1.84	28.57	28.57	-0.79	-0.79
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	1.79	1.79	39.29	39.29	-0.38	-0.38
Portland St.	BSky	0.48	0.48	56.67	56.67	0.06	0.06
Southern Utah	BSky	0.42	0.42	36.67	36.67	-0.11	-0.11
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.42	0.42	61.29	61.29	0.09	0.09
Utah Valley	WAC	0.37	0.37	65.52	65.52	0.12	0.12
North Dakota	BSky	0.36	0.36	33.33	33.33	-0.12	-0.12
Montana St.	BSky	0.36	0.36	36.67	36.67	-0.10	-0.10
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.32	0.32	13.33	13.33	-0.24	-0.24
Idaho	BSky	0.32	0.32	68.97	68.97	0.12	0.12
Pepperdine	WCC	0.30	0.30	16.13	16.13	-0.20	-0.20
San Francisco	WCC	0.29	0.29	53.12	53.12	0.02	0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.27	0.27	60.71	60.71	0.06	0.06
Stanford	P12	0.26	0.26	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Pacific	WCC	0.24	0.24	41.94	41.94	-0.04	-0.04
Nevada	MWC	0.24	0.24	79.41	79.41	0.14	0.14
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.23	0.23	84.85	84.85	0.16	0.16
Washington	P12	0.20	0.20	62.50	62.50	0.05	0.05
Seattle	WAC	0.18	0.18	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.18	0.18	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Portland	WCC	0.18	0.18	24.14	24.14	-0.09	-0.09
USC	P12	0.18	0.18	67.65	67.65	0.06	0.06
Arizona St.	P12	0.18	0.18	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
Oregon St.	P12	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.15	0.15	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.15	0.15	67.74	67.74	0.05	0.05
Colorado St.	MWC	0.15	0.15	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Princeton	Ivy	0.13	0.13	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
BYU	WCC	0.12	0.12	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.12	0.12	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.12	0.12	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.12	0.12	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.12	0.12	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Utah	P12	0.12	0.12	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.12	0.12	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.12	0.12	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
Utah St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UCLA	P12	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.09	0.09	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.09	0.09	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
San Jose St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	10.34	10.34	-0.07	-0.07
Evansville	MVC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
UT Arlington	SB	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Davidson	A10	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	6.67	6.67	-0.08	-0.08
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.09	0.09	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.09	0.09	88.24	88.24	0.07	0.07
Boise St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.09	0.09	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
UNLV	MWC	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.09	0.09	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Penn St.	B10	0.09	0.09	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
George Washington	A10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
VCU	A10	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.08	0.08	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Albany	AE	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	CAA	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Hartford	AE	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Maine	AE	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.05	-0.05
Michigan	B10	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	82.76	82.76	0.04	0.04
New Hampshire	AE	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
SMU	Amer	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
UMass Lowell	AE	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
UMBC	AE	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Valparaiso	MVC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Vermont	AE	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	15.62	15.62	-0.04	-0.04
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Texas A&M	SEC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.06	0.06	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Louis	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.06	0.06	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
Missouri	SEC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Georgia St.	SB	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Denver	Sum	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	83.33	83.33	0.04	0.04
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Loyola MD	Pat	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00